Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 12 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on November 15?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 12¢ · $93 held · ended Nov 15

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$92.7

Combined PnL

-$88.66

Smart Money Entry

28.5¢ → 11.5¢

-60% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$71.35

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$11.59

No12 traders

Total Value$21.33

Total Shares427

Combined PnL-$100.25

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 61.7¢	$40.32	$41.48	+$1.16	71% 950-388 (1338)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$65.83	$12.7	-$5.92	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$68.3	$9.47	-$58.83	68% 89-42 (131)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$9.43	+$7.34	29% 308-740 (1048)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.94	$7.74	+$9	24% 788-2560 (3348)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$23.34	$5.91	-$17.43	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$10.45	$1.52	-$8.94	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 11.2¢	$2.04	$0.91	-$1.13	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 25.5¢	$4.42	$0.87	-$3.55	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$2.69	$0.53	-$2.16	57% 836-638 (1474)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$3.45	$0.52	-$2.93	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.29	$0.46	-$0.83	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$2.48	$0.36	-$2.12	51% 945-892 (1837)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 9.6¢	$0.53	$0.28	-$0.26	65% 4374-2391 (6765)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.38	$0.26	-$2.12	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.25	+$0.05	47% 887-1007 (1894)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.32

Value

$41.48

PnL

+$1.16

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.83

Value

$12.7

PnL

-$5.92

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Invested

$68.3

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$58.83

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$7.34

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$9

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$23.34

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$17.43

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$8.94

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.13

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$3.55

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$2.69

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$2.16

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$2.93

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.83

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.48

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$2.12

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.26

Record

65%

4374-2391 (6765)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$2.12

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.