Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$121.82

Combined PnL

-$7.02

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 98.6¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$116.18

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$0.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.64

Total Shares182

Combined PnL-$7.86

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$28.97	$29.14	+$0.17	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$27.23	$27.75	+$0.51	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$27.41	$27.47	+$0.06	26% 548-1576 (2124)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$19.68	$19.72	+$0.04	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$9.54	$9.64	+$0.1	29% 62-155 (217)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$6.88	$2.93	-$3.94	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.5	$2.46	-$0.04	99% 1243-13 (1256)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.49	$1.53	-$2.96	31% 157-344 (501)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$7.14	$1.18	-$0.96	40% 633-964 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.97

Value

$29.14

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.23

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$27.41

Value

$27.47

PnL

+$0.06

Record

26%

548-1576 (2124)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$0.04

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.64

PnL

+$0.1

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.88

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$3.94

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.04

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.49

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$2.96

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.14

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.96

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.