Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on November 14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 28¢ · $283 held · ends Nov 14

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$282.89

Combined PnL

$36.43

Smart Money Entry

22.1¢ → 27.6¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$207.43

Total Shares807

Combined PnL+$36.16

No5 traders

Total Value$75.47

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 19.5¢	$124	$173.51	+$49.51	40% 39-59 (98)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$28.77	$29.37	+$0.6	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$21.95	$20.98	-$0.98	26% 548-1576 (2124)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.3¢	$33.04	$20.02	-$13.02	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$15.7	$15.06	-$0.64	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$82.35	$12.85	+$0.82	31% 157-344 (501)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70¢	$6.21	$6.9	+$0.69	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$8.49	$3.16	+$0.6	14% 79-505 (584)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$7.2	$1.04	-$1.16	40% 633-964 (1597)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$124

Value

$173.51

PnL

+$49.51

Record

40%

39-59 (98)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.77

Value

$29.37

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$21.95

Value

$20.98

PnL

-$0.98

Record

26%

548-1576 (2124)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.04

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$13.02

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$0.64

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.35

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$0.82

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.69

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$8.49

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.6

Record

14%

79-505 (584)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$1.16

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.6%

27.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$237.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

337.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.