Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 57¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 14

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$121.63

Combined PnL

$41

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$75.99

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$36.26

No7 traders

Total Value$45.44

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$4.75

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$69.92	$62.36	-$7.55	40% 650-980 (1630)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 52¢	$20.8	$23.6	+$2.8	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.49	$12.89	+$17.25	31% 161-352 (513)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 52¢	$6.24	$6.84	+$0.6	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5.42	$5.42	+$0	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.5	$2.91	+$0.41	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.5	$2.91	+$0.41	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.29	$2.66	+$0.37	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 49¢	$0.95	$1.1	+$0.15	51% 719-703 (1422)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$36.97	$0.74	+$26.57	36% 3754-6795 (10549)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.92

Value

$62.36

PnL

-$7.55

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$2.8

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.49

Value

$12.89

PnL

+$17.25

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.41

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.37

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.97

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$26.57

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.