Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $353 held · ends Nov 14

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$352.51

Combined PnL

$7.02

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 82.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$348.92

Total Shares436

Combined PnL+$8.39

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.58

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.37

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 80.3¢	$161.43	$164.8	+$3.37	40% 650-980 (1630)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$86.13	$92.54	+$6.41	39% 40-63 (103)
Haradwaith	Noavg 83.3¢	$166	$43.18	-$2.29	31% 161-352 (513)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$30.55	$31.98	+$1.43	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.21	$4.21	+$0	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$4.38	$4.19	-$0.19	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.34	$4.19	-$0.15	63% 736-439 (1175)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$4	$3.83	-$0.17	49% 753-797 (1550)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.3¢	$13.65	$2.81	-$1.61	14% 82-514 (596)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$2.29	$0.78	+$0.24	52% 1696-1538 (3234)

241532532432

Invested

$161.43

Value

$164.8

PnL

+$3.37

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$86.13

Value

$92.54

PnL

+$6.41

Record

39%

40-63 (103)

Haradwaith

Invested

$166

Value

$43.18

PnL

-$2.29

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.55

Value

$31.98

PnL

+$1.43

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.21

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$0.19

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.19

PnL

-$0.15

Record

63%

736-439 (1175)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.65

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$1.61

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.29

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.