Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or higher on November 12?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $65 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$65.4
-$27.74
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $51.62 | $51.64 | +$0.03 | 40% 1474-2196 (3670) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $8 | +$0 | 53% 6040-5408 (11448) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.66 | $5.67 | +$0 | 27% 947-2550 (3497) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $47.37 | $0.03 | -$9.16 | 37% 3439-5885 (9324) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.54 | $0.02 | -$4.52 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $90.82 | $0.02 | -$11.4 | 18% 80-367 (447) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 30% 2939-6893 (9832) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.9 | $0 | -$0.9 | 39% 1385-2190 (3575) |
Invested
$51.62
Value
$51.64
PnL
+$0.03
Record
40%
1474-2196 (3670)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$8
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6040-5408 (11448)
Invested
$5.66
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
947-2550 (3497)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$47.37
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$9.16
Record
37%
3439-5885 (9324)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.54
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.52
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$90.82
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$11.4
Record
18%
80-367 (447)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
30%
2939-6893 (9832)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.9
Record
39%
1385-2190 (3575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.