Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $247 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$246.74
$0.72
99.3¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $80.26 | $80.35 | +$0.09 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $61.71 | $61.75 | +$0.04 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.88 | +$0.18 | 17% 76-375 (451) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $27.69 | $27.89 | +$0.2 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $21.43 | $21.56 | +$0.13 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $15.27 | $15.35 | +$0.08 | 27% 937-2515 (3452) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $9.96 | $9.96 | +$0 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
Invested
$80.26
Value
$80.35
PnL
+$0.09
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$61.71
Value
$61.75
PnL
+$0.04
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.88
PnL
+$0.18
Record
17%
76-375 (451)
Invested
$27.69
Value
$27.89
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$21.43
Value
$21.56
PnL
+$0.13
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$15.27
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$0.08
Record
27%
937-2515 (3452)
Invested
$9.96
Value
$9.96
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.