Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on November 12?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$183.44
$6.52
92.9¢ → 93.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $72 | $72 | +$0 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $28.8 | +$0.9 | 40% 1458-2159 (3617) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $25.48 | $26.88 | +$1.4 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.1¢ | $25.98 | $20.57 | +$4.17 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $19.2 | +$0 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.6 | +$0 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.8 | +$0 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.53 | $1.58 | +$0.05 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
Invested
$72
Value
$72
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$0.9
Record
40%
1458-2159 (3617)
Invested
$25.48
Value
$26.88
PnL
+$1.4
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$25.98
Value
$20.57
PnL
+$4.17
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.05
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.