Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 12?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 54¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$183.48
$18.55
45.6¢ → 53.5¢
+17% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $57.5 | $66.7 | +$9.21 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $30.62 | $35.26 | +$4.64 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $29.84 | $31.62 | +$1.78 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $21.34 | $23.16 | +$1.82 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 45.4¢ | $8.18 | $9.18 | +$1 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5.1 | +$0 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $5.44 | $4.93 | -$0.51 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.49 | $2.89 | +$0.4 | 24% 78-243 (321) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.55 | +$0.05 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $1.92 | $2.09 | +$0.16 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
Invested
$57.5
Value
$66.7
PnL
+$9.21
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Invested
$30.62
Value
$35.26
PnL
+$4.64
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$29.84
Value
$31.62
PnL
+$1.78
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$21.34
Value
$23.16
PnL
+$1.82
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$5.44
Value
$4.93
PnL
-$0.51
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$0.4
Record
24%
78-243 (321)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.05
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.16
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.