Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on November 12?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 54¢ · $312 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$312.02
$55.61
58.6¢ → 54¢
-8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 27.2¢ | $69.67 | $115.29 | +$45.62 | 68% 2086-974 (3060) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $71.54 | $66.82 | -$4.72 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $28.6 | $53.1 | +$24.5 | 34% 333-660 (993) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 59.4¢ | $36.82 | $32.86 | -$3.96 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $18.48 | $14.84 | -$3.64 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $13.21 | $11.47 | -$1.73 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $9.95 | $9.68 | -$0.26 | 78% 593-165 (758) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $5.3 | -$0.2 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
Invested
$69.67
Value
$115.29
PnL
+$45.62
Record
68%
2086-974 (3060)
Invested
$71.54
Value
$66.82
PnL
-$4.72
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$28.6
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$24.5
Record
34%
333-660 (993)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$36.82
Value
$32.86
PnL
-$3.96
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$18.48
Value
$14.84
PnL
-$3.64
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$13.21
Value
$11.47
PnL
-$1.73
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$9.95
Value
$9.68
PnL
-$0.26
Record
78%
593-165 (758)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.