Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 12?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $255 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$254.56
$0.49
98¢ → 97¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $88.77 | $88.78 | +$0.01 | 17% 76-375 (451) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $60.86 | $60.88 | +$0.03 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.37 | $29.46 | +$0.09 | 27% 937-2515 (3452) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $27.43 | $27.5 | +$0.06 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $21.26 | $21.26 | -$0 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $9.83 | $9.82 | -$0.01 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $6.1 | $6.38 | +$0.29 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $5.55 | $5.57 | +$0.02 | 27% 105-284 (389) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $4.91 | $4.91 | +$0 | 40% 1334-2013 (3347) |
Invested
$88.77
Value
$88.78
PnL
+$0.01
Record
17%
76-375 (451)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$60.86
Value
$60.88
PnL
+$0.03
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$29.46
PnL
+$0.09
Record
27%
937-2515 (3452)
Invested
$27.43
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$21.26
Value
$21.26
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$9.83
Value
$9.82
PnL
-$0.01
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$6.38
PnL
+$0.29
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
105-284 (389)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$4.91
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1334-2013 (3347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.