Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $227 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$227.21
$0.13
99.7¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $120.05 | $120.13 | +$0.09 | 27% 105-284 (389) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $61.83 | $61.86 | +$0.02 | 38% 3299-5394 (8693) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $21.59 | $21.6 | +$0.02 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.98 | -$0 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.98 | +$0.01 | 53% 5734-5130 (10864) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.65 | $5.66 | +$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
Invested
$120.05
Value
$120.13
PnL
+$0.09
Record
27%
105-284 (389)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$61.83
Value
$61.86
PnL
+$0.02
Record
38%
3299-5394 (8693)
Invested
$21.59
Value
$21.6
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5734-5130 (10864)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.66
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.