Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$80.12
-$28.31
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $16.56 | $0.06 | -$11.34 | 17% 74-360 (434) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.32 | $0.05 | -$8.27 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.54 | $0.02 | -$4.52 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.97 | $0.01 | -$1.96 | 28% 530-1383 (1913) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 39% 1379-2181 (3560) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.34
Record
17%
74-360 (434)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.32
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.27
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.54
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.52
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.96
Record
28%
530-1383 (1913)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
39%
1379-2181 (3560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.