Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C on November 12?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$145.08
-$28.33
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $144.86 | $144.93 | +$0.07 | 99% 570-5 (575) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.46 | $0.06 | -$11.4 | 17% 74-360 (434) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.32 | $0.05 | -$8.27 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.54 | $0.02 | -$4.52 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.97 | $0.01 | -$1.96 | 28% 530-1383 (1913) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 39% 1379-2181 (3560) |
Invested
$144.86
Value
$144.93
PnL
+$0.07
Record
99%
570-5 (575)
Invested
$11.46
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.4
Record
17%
74-360 (434)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.32
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.27
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.54
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.52
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.96
Record
28%
530-1383 (1913)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
39%
1379-2181 (3560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.