Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$64.08
-$0.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $28.47 | $28.34 | -$0.12 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $25.48 | $25.34 | -$0.14 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $5.44 | $5.53 | +$0.09 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $4.85 | $4.86 | +$0.01 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.