Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 80¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$186.11
$11.99
73¢ → 80¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 74¢ | $128.62 | $135.5 | +$6.89 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.7¢ | $46.25 | $19.81 | +$2.22 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $15.59 | +$1.19 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $6.16 | $7.16 | +$1.01 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $3.76 | $4.44 | +$0.69 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $3.6 | $3.6 | -$0 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
Invested
$128.62
Value
$135.5
PnL
+$6.89
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$46.25
Value
$19.81
PnL
+$2.22
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$15.59
PnL
+$1.19
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$7.16
PnL
+$1.01
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.76
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.69
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.