Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 75¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$183.99
$16.13
77.7¢ → 75¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 76¢ | $132.09 | $148.6 | +$16.51 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $13.22 | $13.64 | +$0.42 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $8.63 | $8.39 | -$0.25 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $8.09 | $7.86 | -$0.23 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $5.41 | $4.87 | -$0.53 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.43 | $0.64 | +$0.2 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
Invested
$132.09
Value
$148.6
PnL
+$16.51
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$13.22
Value
$13.64
PnL
+$0.42
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$8.39
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$7.86
PnL
-$0.23
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.41
Value
$4.87
PnL
-$0.53
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.43
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0.2
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.