Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on November 11?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 11

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$126.37

Combined PnL

-$0.74

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 97.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$126.37

Total Shares130

Combined PnL-$0.74

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$40.42	$40.18	-$0.25	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$27.06	$26.99	-$0.07	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.8	$19.6	-$0.2	50% 4547-4458 (9005)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$14.58	$14.51	-$0.06	53% 325-288 (613)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$9.21	$9.16	-$0.05	36% 262-468 (730)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$8.96	$8.89	-$0.06	36% 254-444 (698)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.85	$4.82	-$0.03	42% 243-342 (585)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$2.23	$2.22	-$0.01	38% 575-934 (1509)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$40.42

Value

$40.18

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$27.06

Value

$26.99

PnL

-$0.07

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

4547-4458 (9005)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.58

Value

$14.51

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.21

Value

$9.16

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

262-468 (730)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$8.89

PnL

-$0.06

Record

36%

254-444 (698)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

243-342 (585)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

575-934 (1509)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.