Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$73.8
$1.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $26.35 | $26.68 | +$0.33 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.98 | +$0.04 | 99% 137-1 (138) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $9.31 | $9.99 | +$0.68 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.12 | $9.1 | -$0.02 | 38% 575-934 (1509) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $4.3 | $4.28 | -$0.01 | 43% 225-304 (529) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.77 | $3.77 | +$0 | 42% 243-342 (585) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.35
Value
$26.68
PnL
+$0.33
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
137-1 (138)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
575-934 (1509)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$0.01
Record
43%
225-304 (529)
Invested
$3.77
Value
$3.77
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
243-342 (585)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.