Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$119.38
$0.54
96.1¢ → 96.1¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $44.1 | $43.95 | -$0.15 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $36.31 | $36.16 | -$0.16 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $31.44 | $27.43 | -$4.01 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2.1 | $7.77 | +$5.67 | 21% 135-495 (630) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $4.89 | $4.07 | -$0.82 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$44.1
Value
$43.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$36.31
Value
$36.16
PnL
-$0.16
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Invested
$31.44
Value
$27.43
PnL
-$4.01
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$7.77
PnL
+$5.67
Record
21%
135-495 (630)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$0.82
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.