Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 63¢ · $244 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$244.18
-$2.98
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $239.94 | $205.39 | -$34.55 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.9¢ | $182.65 | $150.67 | -$31.98 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $57.29 | $54.72 | -$2.57 | |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 62.8¢ | $14.1 | $13.7 | -$0.4 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $12.97 | $11.75 | -$1.23 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $10.44 | $9.15 | -$1.29 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.05 | -$0.2 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1 | $1.14 | +$0.14 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$239.94
Value
$205.39
PnL
-$34.55
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.1
Value
$13.7
PnL
-$0.4
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.97
Value
$11.75
PnL
-$1.23
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$10.44
Value
$9.15
PnL
-$1.29
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.2
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.