Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 48¢ · $177 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$177.27
$1.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $138.84 | $147.06 | +$8.22 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.7¢ | $76.89 | $81.81 | +$4.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $61.95 | $65.25 | +$3.3 | |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $11.94 | $12.34 | +$0.4 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.4¢ | $9.32 | $10.59 | +$1.27 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $3.44 | $3.36 | -$0.07 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.75 | +$0.2 | 6% 18-276 (294) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $1.17 | +$0.04 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
Invested
$138.84
Value
$147.06
PnL
+$8.22
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.94
Value
$12.34
PnL
+$0.4
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.32
Value
$10.59
PnL
+$1.27
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$0.07
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.2
Record
6%
18-276 (294)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.