Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$195.09
-$8.2
87.1¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $138.47 | $128.62 | -$9.86 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $19.53 | $19.98 | +$0.45 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $16.89 | $17.13 | +$0.24 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $15.47 | $16.23 | +$0.76 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $8.58 | $8.68 | +$0.1 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.45 | +$0.1 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
Invested
$138.47
Value
$128.62
PnL
-$9.86
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$19.53
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.45
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.89
Value
$17.13
PnL
+$0.24
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$15.47
Value
$16.23
PnL
+$0.76
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$8.58
Value
$8.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$0.1
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.