Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on November 10?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$222.31
-$1.41
97.5¢ → 98.2¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 97¢ | $116.35 | $115.08 | -$1.27 | 21% 135-495 (630) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $49.73 | $49.44 | -$0.29 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $27.11 | $27.02 | -$0.1 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $22.55 | $13.06 | +$0.24 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $5.37 | $5.51 | +$0.14 | 88% 418-56 (474) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $4.93 | $4.88 | -$0.05 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $4.91 | $4.87 | -$0.04 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $2.5 | $2.46 | -$0.04 | 100% 94-0 (94) |
Invested
$116.35
Value
$115.08
PnL
-$1.27
Record
21%
135-495 (630)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$49.73
Value
$49.44
PnL
-$0.29
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$27.11
Value
$27.02
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$13.06
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$5.51
PnL
+$0.14
Record
88%
418-56 (474)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.88
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$4.87
PnL
-$0.04
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$0.04
Record
100%
94-0 (94)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.