Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $661 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$660.69
-$23.9
80.2¢ → 91¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $434.21 | $485.99 | +$62.59 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.3¢ | $72.45 | $71.54 | -$0.65 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $93.9 | $62.12 | +$6.87 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $79.16 | $28.51 | -$50.66 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $54.58 | $12.53 | -$42.06 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
Invested
$434.21
Value
$485.99
PnL
+$62.59
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$72.45
Value
$71.54
PnL
-$0.65
Record
18%
365-1632 (1997)
Invested
$93.9
Value
$62.12
PnL
+$6.87
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
Invested
$79.16
Value
$28.51
PnL
-$50.66
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$54.58
Value
$12.53
PnL
-$42.06
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.