Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on October 31?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 70¢ · $289 held · ends Oct 31

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$289.12

Combined PnL

$3.56

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 70¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$256.49

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$2.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$32.63

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$1.53

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 74.4¢	$129.36	$124.24	-$5.12	51% 626-610 (1236)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$73.15	$77.63	+$4.48	50% 1774-1756 (3530)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$42.8	$44.1	+$1.3	59% 1743-1208 (2951)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.2¢	$27.7	$28.01	+$0.31	56% 372-296 (668)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$33.37	$10.52	+$1.37	57% 13603-10423 (24026)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$3.41	$4.63	+$1.22	53% 6484-5687 (12171)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$129.36

Value

$124.24

PnL

-$5.12

Record

51%

626-610 (1236)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$73.15

Value

$77.63

PnL

+$4.48

Record

50%

1774-1756 (3530)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$42.8

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$1.3

Record

59%

1743-1208 (2951)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.7

Value

$28.01

PnL

+$0.31

Record

56%

372-296 (668)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.37

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$1.37

Record

57%

13603-10423 (24026)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.41

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$1.22

Record

53%

6484-5687 (12171)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.