Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $536 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$536.03
$68.3
19¢ → 29.5¢
+55% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $144.15 | $191.89 | +$47.74 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $154.49 | $147.12 | -$6.43 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.1¢ | $129.67 | $104.46 | -$25.23 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $23.87 | $42.66 | +$18.8 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 76.8¢ | $111.8 | $90.52 | -$8.33 | 53% 6481-5684 (12165) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.4¢ | $45.63 | $86.48 | +$33.74 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $44.01 | $20.01 | -$4.85 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
Invested
$144.15
Value
$191.89
PnL
+$47.74
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$154.49
Value
$147.12
PnL
-$6.43
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.8
Value
$90.52
PnL
-$8.33
Record
53%
6481-5684 (12165)
Invested
$45.63
Value
$86.48
PnL
+$33.74
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
Invested
$44.01
Value
$20.01
PnL
-$4.85
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.