Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $168 held · ends Oct 30

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$168.41

Combined PnL

-$23.49

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$66.46

Total Shares359

Combined PnL-$19.95

No3 traders

Total Value$101.95

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$3.54

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$66.37	$48.99	-$17.38	51% 602-578 (1180)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$47.12	$46.29	-$0.72	23% 288-962 (1250)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$36.73	$35.93	-$2.52	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$20.04	$19.73	-$0.3	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$20.04	$17.47	-$2.57	50% 1704-1692 (3396)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.37

Value

$48.99

PnL

-$17.38

Record

51%

602-578 (1180)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$47.12

Value

$46.29

PnL

-$0.72

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$36.73

Value

$35.93

PnL

-$2.52

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.04

Value

$19.73

PnL

-$0.3

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.04

Value

$17.47

PnL

-$2.57

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.