Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on October 30?

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 36¢ · $548 held · ends Oct 30

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$548.39

Combined PnL

$82.13

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 36¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$392.56

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL+$82.13

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 29.2¢	$200.41	$277.51	+$77.1	51% 604-583 (1187)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$187.73	$155.83	-$12.7	23% 290-994 (1284)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.5¢	$118.08	$98	-$20.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.4¢	$47.23	$57.83	+$7.76
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$76.53	$78.08	+$1.55	55% 327-264 (591)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.9¢	$33.49	$36.98	+$3.49	60% 1676-1133 (2809)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$200.41

Value

$277.51

PnL

+$77.1

Record

51%

604-583 (1187)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$187.73

Value

$155.83

PnL

-$12.7

Record

23%

290-994 (1284)

Both legs:

No$118.0873.5¢-$20.46

Yes$47.2329.4¢+$7.76

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.53

Value

$78.08

PnL

+$1.55

Record

55%

327-264 (591)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.49

Value

$36.98

PnL

+$3.49

Record

60%

1676-1133 (2809)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 36%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.