Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 26¢ · $208 held · ends Oct 30

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$207.79

Combined PnL

$44.61

Smart Money Entry

18.6¢ → 26¢

+40% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$156.11

Total Shares591

Combined PnL+$46.08

No2 traders

Total Value$51.68

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$1.47

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$48.11	$77.18	+$29.07	50% 1689-1672 (3361)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$56.75	$71.61	+$14.86	51% 600-573 (1173)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$43.21	$42	-$0.21	24% 285-895 (1180)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$89.24	$9.68	-$1.26	53% 6381-5587 (11968)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$5.17	$7.32	+$2.15	57% 13272-10114 (23386)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.11

Value

$77.18

PnL

+$29.07

Record

50%

1689-1672 (3361)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.75

Value

$71.61

PnL

+$14.86

Record

51%

600-573 (1173)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$43.21

Value

$42

PnL

-$0.21

Record

24%

285-895 (1180)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$89.24

Value

$9.68

PnL

-$1.26

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.17

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$2.15

Record

57%

13272-10114 (23386)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.