Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 4.4¢ · $244 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$244.07
$9.28
93.5¢ → 4.4¢
-95% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrockCTR | Noavg 92¢ | $96.54 | $103.15 | +$6.61 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $69.38 | $68.79 | -$0.59 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $50.3 | $50 | -$0.3 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $10.04 | $12.82 | +$2.78 | 53% 6389-5593 (11982) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $8.53 | $9.32 | +$0.79 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
Invested
$96.54
Value
$103.15
PnL
+$6.61
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$69.38
Value
$68.79
PnL
-$0.59
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.3
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.3
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$12.82
PnL
+$2.78
Record
53%
6389-5593 (11982)
Invested
$8.53
Value
$9.32
PnL
+$0.79
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.