Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $275 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$274.9
-$0.26
82.1¢ → 92¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $103.38 | $111.02 | +$7.64 | 50% 1640-1625 (3265) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $78.38 | $77.01 | -$1.12 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $71.03 | $63.33 | -$7.7 | 51% 577-548 (1125) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $16.2 | +$1 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $7.43 | $7.35 | -$0.08 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
Invested
$103.38
Value
$111.02
PnL
+$7.64
Record
50%
1640-1625 (3265)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$78.38
Value
$77.01
PnL
-$1.12
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Invested
$71.03
Value
$63.33
PnL
-$7.7
Record
51%
577-548 (1125)
balthazar<$100Invested
$15.2
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$1
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
Invested
$7.43
Value
$7.35
PnL
-$0.08
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.