Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 28?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 32¢ · $845 held

Yes32¢No68¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$844.57

Combined PnL

-$42.06

Smart Money Entry

34.4¢ → 32.4¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$333.62

Total Shares1,093

Combined PnL-$43.07

No1 trader

Total Value$140.31

Total Shares208

Combined PnL+$1.01

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 64.8¢	$387.29	$370.64	-$7.89	30% 277-652 (929)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.8¢	$240.08	$250.54	+$10.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.3¢	$138.41	$120.11	-$18.38
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 34.2¢	$1.1K	$321.44	-$38.77	46% 566-656 (1222)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 70¢	$145.32	$140.31	+$1.01	54% 233-196 (429)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$16	$12.18	-$4.31	61% 1550-999 (2549)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$387.29

Value

$370.64

PnL

-$7.89

Record

30%

277-652 (929)

Both legs:

No$240.0864.8¢+$10.48

Yes$138.4137.3¢-$18.38

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,106.9

Value

$321.44

PnL

-$38.77

Record

46%

566-656 (1222)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$145.32

Value

$140.31

PnL

+$1.01

Record

54%

233-196 (429)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$4.31

Record

61%

1550-999 (2549)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.5%

32.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$189.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

289.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.