Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 34¢ · $453 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$452.9
-$9.09
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $315.46 | $303.6 | -$11.86 | 46% 554-641 (1195) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $114.29 | $110.62 | -$2.64 | 33% 273-556 (829) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $73.32 | $74.5 | +$1.18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $40.02 | $36.12 | -$3.81 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $19.99 | $21.4 | +$1.4 | 57% 12899-9813 (22712) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $15.91 | $17.28 | +$1.37 | 61% 1522-962 (2484) |
Invested
$315.46
Value
$303.6
PnL
-$11.86
Record
46%
554-641 (1195)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$114.29
Value
$110.62
PnL
-$2.64
Record
33%
273-556 (829)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.99
Value
$21.4
PnL
+$1.4
Record
57%
12899-9813 (22712)
Invested
$15.91
Value
$17.28
PnL
+$1.37
Record
61%
1522-962 (2484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.