Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 48¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$179.47

Combined PnL

$4.06

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 47.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$161.97

Total Shares318

Combined PnL+$4.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$17.5

Total Shares27

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 50.7¢	$58.79	$59.16	+$0.37	43% 56-75 (131)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$52.92	$55.08	+$2.16	54% 1125-974 (2099)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$19.6	$20.4	+$0.8	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$14.36	$14.42	+$0.06	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.2	-$0	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$13.21	$6.36	+$0.68	42% 803-1100 (1903)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$6.31	$6.31	-$0	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$4.45	$4.45	+$0	36% 332-601 (933)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$3.09	$3.09	+$0	71% 950-388 (1338)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$58.79

Value

$59.16

PnL

+$0.37

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

$52.92

Value

$55.08

PnL

+$2.16

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.36

Value

$14.42

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$13.21

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$0.68

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.