Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$80.09

Combined PnL

-$27.16

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.16

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares267

Combined PnL-$27.32

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$79.8	$79.96	+$0.16	99% 1281-15 (1296)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$46.94	$0.07	-$15.05	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.56	$0.02	-$3.54	18% 853-3919 (4772)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	29% 3178-7933 (11111)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.01	-$2.08	31% 161-352 (513)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.89	$0.01	-$1.88	26% 548-1577 (2125)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.01	-$1.08	30% 98-230 (328)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.53	$0	-$0.53	34% 229-452 (681)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	46% 1095-1300 (2395)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.8

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.16

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.94

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$15.05

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.54

Record

18%

853-3919 (4772)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.08

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.89

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.88

Record

26%

548-1577 (2125)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.08

Record

30%

98-230 (328)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

PnL

-$0.53

Record

34%

229-452 (681)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.