Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$242.45

Combined PnL

-$3.13

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$241.86

Total Shares244

Combined PnL-$1.4

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.6

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$1.73

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99¢	$90.37	$69.87	-$1.6	26% 549-1579 (2128)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$56.83	$56.89	+$0.06	29% 63-155 (218)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$39.65	$39.64	-$0.01	30% 1042-2403 (3445)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$29.65	$29.68	+$0.03	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$20.16	$20.18	+$0.02	51% 771-729 (1500)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$19.7	$19.79	+$0.09	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$5.8	$5.81	+$0.01	34% 275-525 (800)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.24	$0.31	+$0.07	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.29	-$1.8	31% 165-364 (529)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$90.37

Value

$69.87

PnL

-$1.6

Record

26%

549-1579 (2128)

123987456<$100

Invested

$56.83

Value

$56.89

PnL

+$0.06

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$39.65

Value

$39.64

PnL

-$0.01

Record

30%

1042-2403 (3445)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.65

Value

$29.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.16

Value

$20.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

771-729 (1500)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.7

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$1.8

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.