Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 15?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 89¢ · $615 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$615.26
$60.71
80.9¢ → 88.5¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 81.7¢ | $208.4 | $229.5 | +$21.1 | 40% 650-980 (1630) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 77.5¢ | $190.71 | $221.58 | +$30.87 | 65% 4311-2325 (6636) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $42.96 | $49.5 | +$6.54 | 39% 40-63 (103) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 86.3¢ | $103.56 | $41.11 | -$1.37 | 31% 161-352 (513) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $36.12 | $36 | -$0.12 | 14% 82-514 (596) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $23.91 | $27 | +$3.09 | 29% 62-155 (217) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $5.29 | $5.29 | +$0 | 49% 785-823 (1608) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $4.69 | $5.28 | +$0.59 | 30% 240-572 (812) |
Invested
$208.4
Value
$229.5
PnL
+$21.1
Record
40%
650-980 (1630)
Invested
$190.71
Value
$221.58
PnL
+$30.87
Record
65%
4311-2325 (6636)
Invested
$42.96
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$6.54
Record
39%
40-63 (103)
HaradwaithInvested
$103.56
Value
$41.11
PnL
-$1.37
Record
31%
161-352 (513)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$36.12
Value
$36
PnL
-$0.12
Record
14%
82-514 (596)
Invested
$23.91
Value
$27
PnL
+$3.09
Record
29%
62-155 (217)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$5.29
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
785-823 (1608)
Invested
$4.69
Value
$5.28
PnL
+$0.59
Record
30%
240-572 (812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.