Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (50%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 50¢ · $336 held · ends Nov 15

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$336.14

Combined PnL

$98.14

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 49.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$304.39

Total Shares616

Combined PnL+$93.73

No4 traders

Total Value$31.35

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$4.41

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 48.3¢	$197.43	$201.86	+$4.43	55% 1093-897 (1990)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$56.97	$53.84	-$3.13	40% 650-980 (1630)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$50.03	$27.94	+$75.49	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$11.43	$15.24	+$3.81	29% 1100-2665 (3765)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$11.35	+$9.26	31% 161-352 (513)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$9.66	$10.16	+$0.5	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.73	$9.41	+$7.68	18% 853-3919 (4772)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.88	$2.98	+$0.09	58% 703-515 (1218)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$2.96	$2.97	+$0.01	30% 1036-2402 (3438)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$197.43

Value

$201.86

PnL

+$4.43

Record

55%

1093-897 (1990)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.97

Value

$53.84

PnL

-$3.13

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.03

Value

$27.94

PnL

+$75.49

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$11.43

Value

$15.24

PnL

+$3.81

Record

29%

1100-2665 (3765)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$9.26

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.66

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$7.68

Record

18%

853-3919 (4772)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$2.96

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

1036-2402 (3438)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.8%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.