Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 15?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 76¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$342.24
$22.58
75.7¢ → 75.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 75.2¢ | $127.47 | $112.75 | +$0.56 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $62.37 | $63.52 | +$1.15 | 55% 1088-874 (1962) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $52.47 | $52.47 | +$0 | 40% 36-54 (90) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 74¢ | $123.35 | $47.8 | +$18.12 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $23.4 | $23.4 | -$0 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $14.2 | $15.6 | +$1.4 | 53% 6888-6032 (12920) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $11.7 | $11.7 | -$0 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $10.01 | $8.75 | +$1.3 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $6.2 | $6.25 | +$0.05 | 40% 620-939 (1559) |
HaradwaithInvested
$127.47
Value
$112.75
PnL
+$0.56
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$62.37
Value
$63.52
PnL
+$1.15
Record
55%
1088-874 (1962)
Invested
$52.47
Value
$52.47
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
36-54 (90)
LucerysInvested
$123.35
Value
$47.8
PnL
+$18.12
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
Invested
$23.4
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$0
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
Invested
$14.2
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$1.4
Record
53%
6888-6032 (12920)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$11.7
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$1.3
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
40%
620-939 (1559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.