Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on November 15?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $649 held · ends Nov 15

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$649.47

Combined PnL

-$12.37

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 93¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$649.47

Total Shares693

Combined PnL-$12.37

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.8¢	$383.16	$375.2	-$7.96	40% 657-989 (1646)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$85.71	$66.16	-$1.47	26% 549-1579 (2128)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 96¢	$59.99	$58.63	-$1.37	29% 63-155 (218)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$37.54	$37.54	+$0	28% 1020-2626 (3646)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$37.56	$37.38	-$0.18	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$29.34	$28.14	-$1.2	34% 275-525 (800)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$27.5	$21.8	-$0.18	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$19.12	$19.11	-$0.01	58% 725-518 (1243)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$5.52	$5.51	-$0.01	50% 720-711 (1431)

241532532432

Invested

$383.16

Value

$375.2

PnL

-$7.96

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$85.71

Value

$66.16

PnL

-$1.47

Record

26%

549-1579 (2128)

123987456<$100

Invested

$59.99

Value

$58.63

PnL

-$1.37

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$37.54

Value

$37.54

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1020-2626 (3646)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.56

Value

$37.38

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.34

Value

$28.14

PnL

-$1.2

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.5

Value

$21.8

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.12

Value

$19.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

725-518 (1243)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

720-711 (1431)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.