Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on November 15?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.22

Combined PnL

-$41.93

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares449

Combined PnL-$41.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$28.77	$0.08	-$15.06	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.3	$0.05	-$8.25	26% 550-1579 (2129)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.17	$0.02	-$4.15	34% 234-460 (694)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.56	$0.02	-$3.54	18% 853-3922 (4775)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	35% 251-467 (718)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.36	$0.01	-$2.35	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.01	-$2.08	32% 168-365 (533)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.01	-$1.08	30% 99-232 (331)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.77

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$15.06

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.25

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.15

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.54

Record

18%

853-3922 (4775)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.35

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.08

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.08

Record

30%

99-232 (331)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.