Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 91¢ · $760 held · ends Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$759.58

Combined PnL

$135.44

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 90.5¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$752.48

Total Shares819

Combined PnL+$139.23

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.1

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$3.79

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 71.2¢	$329.85	$423.88	+$96.09	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
24 241532532432	Noavg 75.3¢	$134.83	$164.68	+$29.85	38% 543-874 (1417)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$57.17	$59.5	+$2.34	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 79¢	$47.69	$27.6	+$6.79	27% 973-2599 (3572)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27	$27.6	+$0.6	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 92¢	$27.6	$27.6	+$0	29% 1059-2631 (3690)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$11.62	$13.05	+$2.43	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$10.89	$7.1	-$3.79	13% 62-416 (478)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.27	$5.77	+$0.5	73% 778-291 (1069)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 81¢	$6.51	$2.8	+$0.63	65% 4251-2269 (6520)

hello.67

Invested

$329.85

Value

$423.88

PnL

+$96.09

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

241532532432

Invested

$134.83

Value

$164.68

PnL

+$29.85

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$57.17

Value

$59.5

PnL

+$2.34

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$47.69

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$6.79

Record

27%

973-2599 (3572)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1059-2631 (3690)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.62

Value

$13.05

PnL

+$2.43

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.89

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$3.79

Record

13%

62-416 (478)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$0.5

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.63

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.