Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 14?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 55¢ · $346 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$345.85
$11.81
57.7¢ → 54.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $144.28 | $145.44 | +$1.15 | 60% 2190-1463 (3653) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $129.36 | $143.96 | +$14.6 | 57% 1056-787 (1843) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $19.2 | $19.2 | +$0 | 13% 54-364 (418) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $15.37 | $12.36 | -$3.02 | 53% 6404-5641 (12045) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $11.7 | $12 | +$0.3 | 40% 1525-2262 (3787) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $9.52 | $9.29 | -$0.23 | 46% 1805-2097 (3902) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $4.59 | $3.6 | -$0.99 | 53% 1163-1023 (2186) |
Invested
$144.28
Value
$145.44
PnL
+$1.15
Record
60%
2190-1463 (3653)
Invested
$129.36
Value
$143.96
PnL
+$14.6
Record
57%
1056-787 (1843)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.2
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
54-364 (418)
Invested
$15.37
Value
$12.36
PnL
-$3.02
Record
53%
6404-5641 (12045)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.3
Record
40%
1525-2262 (3787)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.29
PnL
-$0.23
Record
46%
1805-2097 (3902)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.99
Record
53%
1163-1023 (2186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.