Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 13?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$104.81
$0.18
98.9¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $43.41 | $43.5 | +$0.09 | 79% 380-101 (481) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.82 | +$0.04 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $18.38 | $18.43 | +$0.05 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $14.87 | $14.86 | -$0.01 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $4.95 | $4.96 | +$0.01 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $3.25 | $3.25 | +$0 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
Invested
$43.41
Value
$43.5
PnL
+$0.09
Record
79%
380-101 (481)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.82
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.38
Value
$18.43
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.87
Value
$14.86
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.96
PnL
+$0.01
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.