Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 13?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$69.53
$1.92
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $18.96 | $19.52 | +$0.56 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $18.68 | +$0.48 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $11.86 | $12.69 | +$0.83 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $10.97 | $10.9 | -$0.07 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.67 | +$0.12 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $3.07 | $3.07 | +$0 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$18.96
Value
$19.52
PnL
+$0.56
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.68
PnL
+$0.48
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
balthazar<$100Invested
$11.86
Value
$12.69
PnL
+$0.83
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.67
PnL
+$0.12
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$3.07
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.