Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on November 13?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 58¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$149.89
$1.6
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $108.92 | $115.49 | +$6.57 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $20.77 | $17.94 | -$2.83 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $7.8 | -$1.4 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $3.93 | $3.48 | -$0.45 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $1.95 | -$0.2 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $1.95 | -$0.1 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $1.28 | $1.28 | +$0 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$108.92
Value
$115.49
PnL
+$6.57
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$17.94
PnL
-$2.83
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$7.8
PnL
-$1.4
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$0.45
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.2
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
$1.95
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.