Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 13?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 67¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$155.87
$1.6
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $60.91 | $64.87 | +$3.95 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 64.9¢ | $29.84 | $29.44 | -$0.4 | 79% 380-101 (481) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $16.25 | $16 | -$0.25 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $12.8 | -$0.8 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $12.29 | $11.91 | -$0.39 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $9.6 | $9.6 | +$0 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.32 | $5.95 | -$0.37 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $3.2 | -$0.05 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $2.2 | $2.1 | -$0.1 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
Invested
$60.91
Value
$64.87
PnL
+$3.95
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$29.84
Value
$29.44
PnL
-$0.4
Record
79%
380-101 (481)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$16
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$12.8
PnL
-$0.8
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
balthazar<$100Invested
$12.29
Value
$11.91
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$6.32
Value
$5.95
PnL
-$0.37
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.