Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C or below on November 13?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $184 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$184.11
-$0.1
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.9 | +$0 | 99% 275-2 (277) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $45.95 | $45.95 | +$0 | 79% 380-101 (481) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | +$0 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $14.97 | -$0.01 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.28 | $3.28 | -$0 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.11 | $0.02 | -$0.08 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.9
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
275-2 (277)
Invested
$45.95
Value
$45.95
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
380-101 (481)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.