Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on November 12?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$300.14
-$76.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $299.68 | $299.85 | +$0.18 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $87.56 | $0.12 | -$26.49 | 53% 459-411 (870) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $16.43 | $0.09 | -$16.34 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $81.98 | $0.04 | -$27.23 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.91 | $0.03 | -$5.88 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.18 | $0.01 | -$1.18 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.01 | -$0.01 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$299.68
Value
$299.85
PnL
+$0.18
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$87.56
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$26.49
Record
53%
459-411 (870)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$16.43
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$16.34
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$81.98
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$27.23
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$5.88
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.18
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.